Additionally, China organized a meeting between the other three EAOs of the Northern Alliance and the Myanmar government in Kunming. Monish Tourangbam is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), India. “Since the alienation of the West over the Rohingya issue, China has seen a new opening and a new opportunity in this, and they are more able to have their say in Naypyidaw and push their line there,” said Mitchell, now the president of the National Democratic Institute, a nonprofit that supports democracy around the world. Following this, the Tatmadaw declared a four-month unilateral ceasefire in north and east, in order to improve conditions for negotiations. The new China-Myanmar flirtation is more worrisome for policymakers in New Delhi, looking across the Bay of Bengal at Myanmar. Given the instability in its border region and the economic value of Myanmar’s location alongside the Indian Ocean, it is no surprise that China has invested politically in the peace process in Myanmar. China has invested billions of dollars in Myanmar mines, oil and gas pipelines and other infrastructure and is its biggest trading partner. The Chinese embassy in Yangon announced today that President Xi will travel to Myanmar on January 17, marking his first visit to the Southeast Asian country in 19 years and the first as China’s leader. China Leaps Into Breach Between Myanmar and West. The transportation route follows gas and oil pipelines built in 2013 and 2017. Asia, South China and Myanmar signed an agreement on Thursday to build the deep sea port project in Kyaukpyu town after negotiations dragged for years … Why exactly would a yet-to-be-built port on the coast of an impoverished Southeast Asian nation give India pause? At the bilateral level, the government and the military establishment of Myanmar receives diplomatic dividends for maintaining good ties with China. Although Aung San Suu Kyi’s relationship with China has been complicated given her stature as a pro-democracy leader, in her more recent political career as State Counsellor she has a pragmatic route with regard to foreign policy. China’s influence in Myanmar manifests on three different levels. This makes Myanmar, to the Indian Ocean and a way to undercut China’s “Malacca Dilemma.” A. Pawan Amin is a Research Scholar at the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. “Cooperation among the Quad is valuable … for what I call ‘strategic deterrence’ against China, by which I mean creating uncertainties in Beijing,” Khurana said. “They have no illusions about China,” he said. It has provided about $30 billion for different kinds of infrastructure financing all over the world since about 2003, he estimates, but that pales in comparison to the headline figures of China’s $1 trillion Belt and Road. “The threat in the east is not so much to the Andamans and Nicobar,” Khurana said. © 2021 Diplomat Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. Long history, shared borders, and lopsided demographics have made Myanmar leery of too close an embrace from China. India has built a port of its own in Myanmar, and the Indian government coaxed private sector firms into building a highway across Myanmar to the Thai border, but India doesn’t have the deep pockets and opaque leadership that Beijing enjoys when it comes to buying influence. This concern is highlighted when one compares the Kyauk Phyu port and SEZ projects — which was awarded to China’s CITIC group — with the Thilawa and Dawei SEZs, being developed by Japanese investments. “As I see things, the Chinese are trying this at all possible places and countries,” said Indian Navy Capt. The largest construction project along the route is the 431 km Muse-Mandalay Railway, a project estimated to cost $9 billion. The announcement came two days after at least 38 protesters were shot dead by security forces. “The ‘how’ is the way to gain an advantage over China.”, Keith Johnson is a senior staff writer at Foreign Policy. The ceasefire however, left out the regions were AA operates. The infrastructure development plan calls for building road and rail transportation from Yunnan Province in China through Muse and Mandalay to Kyaukpyu in Rakhine State. For example. In one sense, China’s plans for a new port in Myanmar overlooking India’s Andaman and Nicobar naval facilities are more reactive than aggressive. And a lot of what Xi announced was long in the works, in some ways turning it into a political stunt helpful to leaders in both countries rather than a new road map for development. For example, Beijing has maintained political, business, social and military ties with the powerful United Wa State Party (UWSP). The biggest challenge to the effort will continue to be UWSP’s leadership of the bloc demanding a renegotiation of the terms. Franklin Roosevelt sought to boost China’s global stature, provided it could meet three conditions. Report, Trans-Pacific From Southeast Asia to the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, the coast of Africa, the Mediterranean, the North Sea, and even in Latin America, China in recent years has acquired outright ownership, development rights, or a management concession to a bevy of strategically located ports. “The United States should pay particular attention to supporting India’s efforts to pose military dilemmas for China,” thus complicating the Chinese military’s ability to concentrate against U.S. assets in the Western Pacific, concluded the Center for a New American Security in a congressionally mandated study on the China threat released this week. In September, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Xi’s visit seems to have turned that around, highlighting how Beijing has been able to take advantage of Myanmar’s recent falling out with the West over allegations of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya minority and general backsliding on human rights by once-lionized leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi. ... Last week, the Chinese consortium leading a deep-water port project in Kyaukphyu, … India’s Navy in those islands is in position to interdict shipping in the vital Strait of Malacca, whose vulnerability remains a headache for Chinese leadership. China Leaps Into Breach Between Myanmar and ... A raft of new multibillion-dollar development deals announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Myanmar earlier this month show how Beijing is back in business in the country after being sidelined from one of its preferred geopolitical stomping grounds for several years as Naypyidaw turned toward the West. Beginning during the Obama administration, and continuing under U.S. President Donald Trump, India has also shed decades of reluctance to align too closely with the United States and has inked defense deals with Washington that help bolster its naval capacities. China and Myanmar “need to deepen results-oriented Belt and Road cooperation and move from a conceptual station to concrete planning and implementation,” he … That creates an opening for India and other countries to compete with China—and blunt some of its recent gains. “My sense is that the deals announced were a collection of things already underway and was as much a demonstration of Burma’s desire to resist overwhelming Chinese influence,” Mitchell said. Its investment in the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, for example, has long worried India. Access to Myanmar's ports and naval installations provide China with strategic influence in the Bay of Bengal, in the wider Indian Ocean region and in Southeast Asia. , Myanmar’s ruling military junta decided to open up to the West in 2011 in order to reduce its dependence on China, but the Rohingya crisis has pushed Myanmar back toward China. Southeast Finally, at the economic level, a lack of alternatives makes Naypyidaw reliant on Chinese investments, thereby ensuring favorable policies towards China over the longer term, notwithstanding regime changes. While the strength of these ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and their opposition to the NCA was likely to put the entire peace process in peril, China has used its influence to bring some of the EAOs to the negotiating table in the previous year. The deals included, crucially, an announcement on the construction of the long-discussed deep-water port at Kyaukpyu. However, it is also true that the CMEC needs financing and China remains the most viable state with the ability to do so. Despite all the commentary about Myanmar’s political and economic opening, China has continued to be Myanmar’s most important trading partner and source of foreign investment, with Chinese enterprises investing in a substantial number of projects in Myanmar. An official projection of over 6 percent growth in the coming year is below economist estimates as the rest of the world still reels from the COVID-19 pandemic. Twitter: @KFJ_FP. Kyaukpyu holds special significance for a country that has spent years fretting about its reliance on imported supplies of energy that must thread the vulnerable Strait of Malacca near Singapore: Kyaukpyu is the terminus of the huge natural gas pipeline China built to bypass Malacca and ensure energy supplies while avoiding the so-called Malacca Dilemma. North Korea’s ruling party wants modern military drones for strike and recon missions. Just $5 a month. Her official visits to China have been viewed as. How will the February 1, 2021, coup in Myanmar affect the country’s internal security and foreign relations? View, About China's State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi is welcomed by and Myanmar's state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, Jan. 11, 2021. “There are many ports and countries beyond Djibouti where China can obtain military access,” Khurana said. The explicit purpose of FPNCC is to. The high-profile visit and big accords were seen as particularly significant because Myanmar (also known as Burma) had started to distance itself from Beijing’s longtime influence, beginning around 2011, and had until recently been increasingly open to more engagement with the West. Chinese VC investment has been excluded from India but is growing in South and Southeast Asia. Defense, China “All of this is of serious concern to India, seen in conjunction with China’s naval cooperation with Pakistan, including Gwadar, on the western seaboard.”. Biden was expected to revive the nuclear deal quickly—but as pro-Iran militias attack U.S. forces in Iraq and Washington strikes back in Syria, direct talks aren’t on the horizon. But among the new Chinese projects, the deep-water port in Kyaukpyu stands out as perhaps the most important in advancing Beijing’s geopolitical interests throughout the wider region. Us, Write Xi’s Myanmar visit to move ahead China-backed port Myanmar and China are expected to ink a deal on the US$1.3 billion Kyaukphyu port project during President Xi Jinping’s visit this month. China was the first country in the world to approve Myanmar’s military junta, but China itself also came under heavy criticism from the West for … New Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene became the first to get his shot, kicking off Mongolia's vaccine campaign. China’s inroads into the political roadmap of Myanmar is visibly evident from its role in the nationwide reconciliation with the ethnic rebels in the country. between China and Myanmar has become visibly significant again, showing the extent of China’s grip over the politics and economics of Myanmar. Yunnan province in China to the economic hubs of Mandalay, Yangon New City and the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone in Myanmar. The many unilateral ceasefires seem meaningless -- they have not stopped or even lessened the fighting so far. China and India are spending a collective $2 billion to build deepwater ports, within 40 miles of each other, on Myanmar’s coast. Chinese legal directives ordering state-owned shipping companies to offer logistics support to the Chinese navy—as they have done in recent years—turn China’s huge shipping fleet and port operations into a potential adjunct of its growing navy. A number of projects have been initiated in recent years as a sign of burgeoning cooperation between China and Myanmar. Indian officials say China is assisting rebel groups that have stepped up attacks on its border with Myanmar in recent months, opening another … And Chinese projects often are ill-vetted, fail to be transparent, and offer little benefit to local populations. “Burma is interested in the ‘how’—if money comes in transparently, and shows respect for Burmese sovereignty, it will be very competitive,” said Mitchell, the former ambassador. Beijing also attempted to stop a Security Council briefing on the Rohingya issue and reduce the budget allocated for investigating the incidents in Rakhine State. Unlike the Japanese projects where Myanmar retains controlling stakes, in Chinese investments, Chinese hold the 51 percent stake. According to Bertil Lintner, Myanmar’s ruling military junta decided to open up to the West in 2011 in order to reduce its dependence on China, but the Rohingya crisis has pushed Myanmar back toward China. [Photo/Chinanews.com] KUNMING - … It is here that China’s intentions and its political maneuverability between the Suu Kyi government and its closest partners among non-signatory EAOs will be tested. The ports are meant as commercial trading posts to enhance China’s world-leading shipping industry and bolster the country’s exports. However, it is also true that the CMEC needs financing and China remains the most viable state with the ability to do so. The 102nd Mekong River joint patrol by China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand concluded on Friday, with three Chinese law-enforcement vessels returning home to port. Suu Kyi has been heavily criticized for her silence, but China has shielded her regime and the military in the UN by whittling down a Security Council statement drafted by the UK. China Leaps Into Breach Between Myanmar and ... Oh God, Not Another Long Telegram About China, China Is Losing Influence—and That Makes It Dangerous, The Middle East’s Next Conflicts Won’t Be Between Arab States and Iran. Beijing, a Security Council briefing on the Rohingya issue and, allocated for investigating the incidents in Rakhine State. Click here to subscribe for full access. China’s influence in Myanmar manifests on three different levels. A close defense partner could provide what it needs. In fact, the agreement on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor – highlighted by the proposed deep-water port and special economic zone at Kyaukphyu – … China is indispensable to all political entities in Myanmar, including the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military). Australia’s minerals trade has been divided almost clean in half by the country's trade spat with China. Amid the pandemic and global economic chaos, the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis in Southeast Asia has quietly been swept under a rug. From Nepal to India, Thailand to Myanmar, people are taking to the streets – or social media – to demand change. Her official visits to China have been viewed as largely fruitful, resulting in a greater understanding between the two countries, and helping shield Myanmar from international ostracism. FPNCC and Northern Alliance participated in the third Panglong Conference on China’s initiative. “Even while the Belt and Road has a predominantly geo-economic motive, it is also being used for this military-strategic end.”. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi inked a slate of huge investment deals that help restore China’s geopolitical influence over the Southeast Asian nation on Jan. 17. How Vietnam's communist party chief earned a surprise third term at this year's National Congress. How is that remaking foreign startup ecosystems? China’s ties with the ethnic armed groups is not a recent phenomenon. Dams may seem to be a perfect solution to Pakistan’s water woes, but they carry steep costs – literally and figuratively. The port is expected to be another key development in Sino-Myanmar cooperation. Chinese port deals in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, the Maldives, and the Seychelles have all made headlines and chilled Indian planners who fear being choked by a Chinese “string of pearls.”. “It’s not large-scale checkbook diplomacy, and it’s not that significant compared to China, but it’s not insignificant,” he said. , Chinese hold the 51 percent stake. Weeks prior to the Panglong Peace Conference in May 2017, UWSP led the formation of a new seven-member Federal Political Negotiation and Coordination Committee (FPNCC). A number of projects have been initiated in recent years as a sign of burgeoning cooperation between China and Myanmar. In the best-case scenario, Myanmar would be rich like the East and democratic like the West. Asia, Southeast “They use it as an opportunity to invest, whether through the Belt and Road or the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, or the peace process—those are all different ways to ensure that Burma remains in its sphere of influence.”. Peace continues to be elusive, as the AA has shifted its focus to Rakhine State, where, with the Tatmadaw have reportedly increased in recent weeks. Beijing’s influence in Myanmar permeates multiple levels of engagement between the two neighbors. It is here that China’s intentions and its political maneuverability between the Suu Kyi government and its closest partners among non-signatory EAOs will be tested. CMEC will connect Yunnan province in China to the economic hubs of Mandalay, Yangon New City and the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone in Myanmar. Meanwhile, the twin Chinese oil and gas pipelines run from Kyaukphyu to Kunming, capital of China's Yunnan Province, since last year. India has in recent years, as part of its eastward orientation in security and foreign policy, shifted some of its naval weight closer to Southeast Asia, including a new naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, not far from where China is building its new port in Myanmar. Despite all the commentary about Myanmar’s political and economic opening, China has continued to be Myanmar’s. as a mediator between Myanmar and Bangladesh, which agreed to the three-step solution to the Rakhine State problems as proposed by China: stop violence, start repatriation and promote development. Asia, Central Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Wednesday, April 24, 2019. Weeks prior to the Panglong Peace Conference in May 2017, UWSP led the formation of a new seven-member Federal Political Negotiation and Coordination Committee (FPNCC). The newly built railway would connect to the Chinese rail… During Xi’s visit, Myanmar didn’t cave to all of Beijing’s requests, notably resisting calls to restart the stalled hydroelectric project whose cancellation chilled relations in 2011. At the end of the route, a port and Special Economic Zone is planned at Khaukphyu. Moreover, China has. trading partner and source of foreign investment, with Chinese enterprises investing in a substantial number of projects in Myanmar. But Indian and U.S. naval officers are increasingly concerned that China’s port-buying spree is laying the groundwork to enable its already huge and growing navy to dominate waters far from the Chinese coast. Following this, the Tatmadaw declared a four-month unilateral ceasefire in north and east, in order to improve conditions for negotiations. The move is an important step in reviving intra-regional tourism and recovery from the coronavirus recession. “China viewed Burmese reengagement with the West through a zero-sum prism: It felt better relations with the West were coming at its expense,” said Derek Mitchell, a former U.S. special envoy and ambassador to Myanmar during its opening to the West. Money, Tokyo Beijing is using commercial bridgeheads to give its warships staying power in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, if the situation between Naypyidaw and the EAOs is maintained at a steady simmer, China will get to maintain its advantage, thereby, preventing other countries from increasing their influence in its bordering region. , thereby, preventing other countries from increasing their influence in its bordering region. At the same time, if the situation between Naypyidaw and the EAOs is maintained at a steady simmer, China will get to. Coup a further complication for tricky Myanmar-China ties. Besides being the biggest supplier of military hardware to Myanmar, accounting for 61 percent of weapons imported by Myanmar between 2014 and 2018, China has managed to carve a space in the domestic politics of Myanmar. “They are undeniably preparing for future naval operations in the area to secure their strategic and energy interests,” Khurana said. Asia, Asia China Leaps Into Breach Between Myanmar and West But with the Myanmar government recently delaying and cancelling BRI projects and developing some big ticket projects with India, like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral highway, the Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport network and the planned Special Economic Zone at the Sittwe deep-water port, China saw its own Myanmar designs taking a back stage. Despite Myanmar’s increasing outreach to the outside world, Chinese engagement with the military and political elites in the country is still strong. “The real potential today is in Pakistan, but more countries could be added to this list, and this is a matter of concern for India.”. These three EAOs — TNLA, AA and MDAA — went on to issue a. late last year, signalling their interest in joining the peace process. for Us. , resulting in a greater understanding between the two countries, and helping shield Myanmar from international ostracism. The port is the centrepiece of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) project -- a key thread in China's global Belt and Road vision. Just this week, India suggested that it might include Australia in this year’s big Quad naval exercises, which would be something of a step change for New Delhi, long hesitant to turn the informal grouping into an overt security arrangement. For China, a new deep-water port on the western coast of Myanmar, perched just a few hundred miles from the easternmost Indian-held islands, is just the latest chapter in Beijing’s spree of port acquisitions that underwrite the maritime half of its Belt and Road Initiative. A long-running war and COVID-19 muddle development in Kyaukphyu, Myanmar. The ceasefire however, left out the regions were AA operates. Gurpreet Khurana, former executive director of the country’s National Maritime Foundation, in an email. The explicit purpose of FPNCC is to renegotiate the terms of the peace process and find an alternative to the NCA. The fear of falling into a Chinese “debt trap” has been, , too. Eight ethnic groups signed a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in October 2015. The biggest challenge to the effort will continue to be UWSP’s leadership of the bloc demanding a renegotiation of the terms. How does modern China measure up to that standard? One of the flagship projects of China-Myanmar cooperation is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Naval and other security cooperation with countries such as Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Singapore “are steps to compensate for India’s inability to do it alone,” he said. The United States, too, has taken baby steps toward beefing up its ability to play checkbook diplomacy and compete with Chinese financing for much-needed infrastructure projects that Beijing uses to buy influence. That makes it harder to sustain India’s desire to become the go-to security provider in the Indian Ocean, and it makes greater cooperation with regional neighbors and countries like the United States more important. For China, a new deep-water port on the western coast of Myanmar, perched just a few hundred miles from the easternmost Indian-held islands, is just the latest chapter in Beijing’s spree of … of the peace process and find an alternative to the NCA. Moreover, China has positioned itself as a mediator between Myanmar and Bangladesh, which agreed to the three-step solution to the Rakhine State problems as proposed by China: stop violence, start repatriation and promote development. China is indispensable to all political entities in Myanmar, including the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military). What’s behind the Indian Army’s reorientation of its Mathura-based 1 Corps toward China? That’s a route that Japan has taken, with some success, to counter China’s Belt and Road programs throughout Asia. Despite Myanmar’s increasing outreach to the outside world, Chinese engagement with the military and political elites in the country is still strong.
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